主讲人：张卓颖

报告题目：国家发展战略视角下区域资源安全与资源优化配置研究

主持人：张国凤

时间：2019年10月18日（周五）中午12：00-13：30

地点：明德主楼623会议室

主讲人简介：

张卓颖，现为中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院副研究员。中国投入产出学会副秘书长，常务理事。长期从事国家安全战略视角下资源安全与资源优化配置等相关研究，在资源安全与国家发展战略相互关系模拟与政策分析方面进行了开创性研究和探索性尝试并取得了阶段性研究成果。目前，公开发表学术论文20余篇，包括国际一流学术期刊Ecological Economics, Environmental Science & Technology, 国际投入产出学会官方期刊Economic Systems Research等。近年来主持与参与来自中央军委、国家自然科学基金、国家社会科学基金、科技部、中科院及国家部委等国家级与省部级科研项目30余项。撰写的内参报告提交中央军委、中共中央办公厅和国务院办公厅，获中央领导肯定与表扬。

摘要：

The ChineseGovernment has set an ambitious goal of becoming a “world-class” megalopolis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (the BTH region), one of the most water scarce region in China. This study investigates the water resource security as well as the effects of the water conservation measures for the BTH region in its development towards this goal based on scenario simulations by applying an inter-city input-output optimization model. The results reveals the challenge in water security faced by the BTH region reflected by the gap between the water required for achieving the goal and the water endowment is large. Even to achieve the economic level equivalent to the Yangtze River Delta megalopolis in China, an extra amount of 18.63 billion m3 water is required. The results also show that the measures of improving water use efficiency and compressing agricultural water use can respectively bring about water savings of 6.88 billion m3 and 11.61 billion m3, neither of which is capable of offsetting the water gap brought about by the ambitious goal. Although the South-to-North Water Transfer Project can provide a considerable amount of water supplementation to the BTH region, it is deficient in water supply stability. This study emphasizes the significance of controlling agriculture water use in Hebei in ensuring water security in the BTH region and relevant policies are recommended. The results of this study contribute to a profounder understanding on the restrictive effect of water resources security on national development strategies.